In this monthly briefing memo, my colleagues at the International Center and I share information on trends and technologies that will have an impact on education.                                                                                           Sincerely,    Bill Daggett

Changing Workplace  

Shift in Global Competition from Low-wage to High-wage Jobs  

A decade ago our nation was concerned about American businesses relocating jobs to countries such as China and India, effectively moving low-wage jobs away from Americans to lower paid workers in developing countries. These jobs were predominately low-skill and located in functional areas such as call centers. A significant shift has become apparent more recently: jobs being exported to those same countries - as well as to Russia and Eastern Europe, for example - that are high-wage/high-skill jobs in information, bio- and nano-technology. This group of countries represents 3 billion people, just about half of the world population. This is an alarming concern to American labor because even if only the top 10 percent of the citizenry of these countries are educated for high-skill technology jobs, that number would still equal 300 million people – a labor pool greater than the entire U.S. population. How the United States addresses this trend will have a great impact on the American labor market over the next decade.  

For a current world population counter, visit www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop 

Source: Bob Herbert, “Education is No Protection,” The New York Times, January 26, 2004.

Source: Alan M. Webber, “When Will Leaders Fess Up about Global Economy?,” USA Today, January, 26, 2004. www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040126/5868817s.htm

Source: “India Tech Boom,” Red Herring, January 2, 2004.

Information Technology 

Advertisers Getting Innovative in Seeking Out the Younger Audience

Since the television first appeared in American living rooms, marketing executives have had a powerful vehicle in which to deliver their message to the public. Times have changed, however, and advertisers are aware of it. The younger generation – people below the age of 35 but especially those between 18 and 24 – watches less TV than previous generations and spends more time on computers, renting movies, and playing video games. Out of necessity, advertisers are expanding their horizons into the digital technology market and actively seeking out the younger audience that is so critical to successful branding. From the years 2000 to 2003, video game sales tripled from $6.5 billion to a projected $20.8 billion. Instead of lamenting the loss of channel access, advertisers will now help to fuel the growth of digital technology by paying developers top dollar for product placement in movies, cable TV, video games, Web pages, e-mail, and more. 

Source: “Top 10 Trends: Ad Infinitum,” Red Herring, December 15, 2003.

Foreign Companies Hope to Capitalize on China’s Economic Growth

China’s increasing leadership in the global marketplace will have profound impact on U.S. and foreign economies in the near future. Currently, China has the largest market in the world for cell phones and is rapidly becoming the second largest for personal computers. China is expected to become the second largest chip manufacturer in the world soon. Essentially, every big-time player in the information technology industry (e.g., Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, Oracle) is eager to make inroads into China, but major concessions will be needed in order to do so. Rules that govern China’s marketplace have already taken their toll on powerful corporations such as Microsoft, which incurred losses in business relations with China this year. While China can sell its manufactured products worldwide, non-Chinese companies cannot sell their products in the Chinese market unless they are on the approved list of state-mandated essential imports. In essence, companies that wish to do business with China must first help China before they can reap the rewards – no exceptions. Seemingly, China has created in an ideal economic situation for itself in the global marketplace.  

Source: “Top 10 Trends: China Syndrome,” Red Herring, December 17, 2003. 

Biotechnology

Obesity Rivals Smoking as America’s Top Health Threat

A potentially huge market is about to open up in the field of biotechnology. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently named obesity as the number-one threat to surpass smoking as the nation’s top health threat. According to World Bank estimates, the cost of obesity is 12 percent of the U.S. healthcare budget. This trend means big business for biotech firms, who are aggressively researching drugs that could soon rival Prozac of Viagra in terms of mass marketability. At least one promising breakthrough in later-stage trials is Regeneron’s Axokine, which will help a person to stop eating once the brain senses a full stomach. 

Although the Unites States has the highest percentage (by a wide margin) of overweight or obese persons at 65 percent, global obesity rates are on the increase as well. By 2010, 25 percent of the world population is expected to fall within the category of obese. 

Source: “Top 10 Trends: Fat Chance,” Red Herring, December 16, 2003.

Human-machine Systems Give Insight to Other’s Emotions/Abilities

Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories are testing a new technology that uses sensors, transmitters, and software to provide information on a person’s mood and ability. Picture yourself sitting in a meeting at work with a computer screen in front of you that is providing data on how you and others are feeling at any moment in time – stressed, angry, depressed, nervous. Although the technology could eventually be used in the general workplace setting, Peter Merkel, head of the Mentor/PAL program at Sandia National, says the primary purpose of the technology is to gauge and improve human performance in military and high-risk situations. This technology is another example of the increasing trend of integrating information and biotech. 

Source: Michelle Delio, “Mood Ring Measured in Megahertz,” Wired News, January 29, 2004.

Nanotechnology

Redefining What an “Ordinary” Household Item Is

Wireless and “anywhere” computing are becoming more and more common every day – even redefining what an “everyday” item is. For instance, Anderson Windows is set to showcase a new line of windows – some with the ability to change from clear to opaque, and others that can double as a computer screen, television, or audio speaker. All of the technology is fully integrated into the windows. They even have the computing power to respond to touch-screen commands. 

Source: Associated Press, “Now You See ‘Em, Now You Don’t,” article appeared in Wired News, January 14, 2004. http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,61922,00.html  

By the Numbers:  

38.8 million  

Number of Hispanic residents in the U.S. –  passed African-Americans to become the largest U.S. minority in 2002 

33.5 million

Number of foreign-born U.S. residents –  a five percent increase since 2001 

3.8 million

Number of millionaire households in America –  a record-high 14 percent increase over 2002 

2,166,260

American prison population –  an all-time high; 1 in 143 adults 

22.8 victims per 1,000 people

Property crime rate in the United States –  a record low 

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The International Center has joined forces with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Council of Chief State School Officers on a major initiative to analyze the policies, organizational structures, and practices of 30 high schools that have achieved high standards for all students. As lead researcher and chief spokesperson, I am happy to present below the first sample of some of the findings from our research. 

As we work with the 30 high schools identified in the country as being highly successful at moving all students toward a more rigorous and relevant curriculum, especially based on the socioeconomic characteristics of their students, several common elements are being identified. One observation is that many of the schools have reorganized into small-school models, such as academies, and/or have adopted major changes in strategies and techniques used with students, such as senior projects. Such innovations have led to an increase in student performance. However, we have also observed that, after three to five years, the improvements seemed to begin to plateau. Schools have sensed that every three to five years they needed to introduce new strategies to reinvigorate the staff, students, and community.  

More details from this will be released at the Model Schools Conference in June. For more information go to http://www.leadered.com/model_schools.html.  

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